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Deadline Looms for Arms Control Talks
By Steve Pagani
VIENNA, June 6 (Reuters) - Negotiators from Bosnia, Croatia and rump Yugoslavia were racing against the clock to seal an arms control agreement before a deadline on Thursday set out in the Dayton peace accord. "They have made a lot of progress... but there is always the possibility the talks might break down,'' a source close to the
talks told Reuterss.
The talks were being mediated by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) which has insisted it will stick to the June 6 date for ending the talks whether a deal has been struck or not. Croatia, rump Yugoslavia comprising Serbia and Montenegro, the Bosnian government, the Bosnian-Croat federation and the Bosnian Serbs are each represented at the arms negotiations.
Details on the arms cuts appeared to have been mostly finalised but one sticking point hinges on how the individual parties were to be referred to in the text of an agreement, the source said. The Bosnian government has opposed referring to Bosnian Serb territory as "Republika Srpska" although the name was written into the Dayton pact last October, much to the delight of Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic.
The talks, based on Article IV of the Dayton agreement, have sought to establish forces and weapons limits within the former Yugoslav federation to reduce the risk of any fresh conflict breaking out in the Balkan region. Quotas should be set on the number of tanks, combat aircraft, assault helicopters and artillery of 75mm and above in a framework similar to that of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, which the former Yugoslavia had not signed.
If the Balkan negotiators fail to conclude an agreement, arms reductions will revert to a formula set out in the Dayton agreement which requires rump Yugoslavia to cut its arms to 75 percent of current levels, the so-called "baseline" level. Croatia and Bosnia would each be allocated 30 percent of the baseline, corresponding to the ratio of their populations.
Bosnian Serbs were unhappy with the way arms totals were to be split inside Bosnia with the allocation shared two-to-one between the Muslim-Croat federation and the Serbs. But the Dayton formula on arms cuts could falter over verification and on-site inspections. If the Balkan negotiators fail to initial an accord on Thursday, they could also hamper any attempt by international inspectors to check they are adhering to the Dayton weapons quotas.
"If there is no agreement, it reverts to the Dayton agreement but there is no implementation regime set out other than a basic one," the source close to the talks said. If there is an agreement, the document will be initialled by negotiators in Vienna and formally signed by either foreign or defence ministers in Oslo on June 11.
The OSCE hoped to build on the success of a separate round of post-Dayton talks on confidence-building measures concluded in January by Bosnia's former foes. The Bosnian-Croat federation and the Bosnian Serbs have exchanged details on the structure and strength of their arsenals and armed forces, on planned annual military activities and on arms factories and sites. Low-key inspections have been carried out by teams comprised of OSCE representatives and a member of one side carrying out checks on the other side. |
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