Will First-Post War Elections Plunge
Bosnia into More Ethnic Strife?
by Kurt SchorkSARAJEVO, April 22 (Reuters) — Winston Churchill once said the problem with the war-prone Balkans was that they produced more history than they could consume. In a variation on that theme, diplomats are worried Bosnia may produce more politics in coming elections than its largely unformed democratic institutions can digest. "The situation is reminiscent of the run-up to war in 1990 when Yugoslav elections were dominated by nationalist parties," said a Western diplomat who asked not to be named.
"There is an even chance elections could further divide Bosnia territorially and politically rather than unite it. There are no democratic structures in place, no tradition of democracy. Ethnic tensions are high, potentially destructive."
Countrywide elections mandated by the Dayton peace accord will pit three big nationalist parties -- Muslim, Croat and Serb — against each another. Each has an army in its service. Several new "opposition" parties have been formed, adding spice to the already volatile political mix. One opposition party, led by former Prime Minister Haris Silajdzic, will battle the ruling Muslim nationalist Party of Democratic Action and the nationalist Croatian Democratic Union inside Bosnia's Muslim-Croat federation.
Another party, with its origins in Banja Luka and strong cross-border ties to Belgrade, will contend against the nationalist Serbian Democratic Party (SDS) which dominates Bosnia's Serb republic. While there is no shortage of political diversity in Bosnia, diplomats say the lack of democratic institutions will make it difficult for voters to decide on free, informed choices and for officials to govern fairly after the elections.
A common currency and customs, budget and banking regulations have yet to be established even within the federation, let alone for Bosnia as a whole. Unemployment is rampant after the war — as high as 90 per cent in some urban areas. The World Bank and others are poised to pump billions into Bosnia to rebuild its infrastructure and create new institutions. But violations of the Dayton agreements are so bad on Serb-controlled territory that their 49 per cent of the country is ineligible for such aid.
Election experts say restrictions on freedom of movement and association across Bosnia would prevent Western-style campaigning and make a mockery of any pretension to democracy. While Bosnia is now a country at peace, it is split into three largely homogenous ethnic zones where Muslim, Croat and Serb authorities discourage their people from allowing other ethnic groups back. Within the federation, Muslim and Croats demand the right to return to towns and villages from which they were displaced by war, but each ethnic group refuses that right to the other.
Refugee movements across the boundary separating Bosnia's Muslim-Croat federation from its Serb republic are equally difficult. What was supposed to be a porous dividing line looks increasingly like a hard-and-fast border. Ambassador Robert Frowick, chief of mission for the Organization for Security and Coordination in Europe (OSCE), will determine whether the conditions to support free and fair elections are present in Bosnia.
He expects to make that call in June, after which world powers could decide to press forward with the process outlined under Dayton or allow more time for democracy to take root. Either decision would have significant implications for the 60,000-strong NATO-led peace implementation force (IFOR), which is scheduled to leave Bosnia at the end of 1996.
Frowick says that if elections are to be held by mid-September, as Dayton requires, major improvements in media and government institutions need to occur almost immediately. As part of that effort, the OSCE is racing to raise and spend millions of dollars to link small, independent television stations in Bosnia as an alternative to mainstream broadcasting controlled by ruling parties in the federation and the republic. Training sessions are also being set up for journalists who grew up under communism and lived through the war and have little knowledge of free elections or the media's role in them.
Apr 20 · $50 Million Needed for Bosnia Elections
Apr 17 · Bosnian Media Network Unlikely by Election Time
Apr 15 · Serbs Said Undermining Bosnian Elections
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