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Karadzic or Not, Election Boycott Feared
‘Frowick is in a tricky spot. The big danger is that
By Mark Heinrich
Richard Holbrooke, U.S. draughtsman of the Dayton peace treaty for Bosnia, returned this week to salvage its definitive provision -- free, inter-ethnic elections -- by having Serb leader Radovan Karadzic dislodged from power. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which is staging the balloting, postponed the official start of campaigning for a week until Friday to buy more time for Western leaders to drum Karadzic out of power.
Robert Frowick, the U.S. diplomat heading OSCE's Bosnia office, may decide on Friday to ban the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) from the election unless Karadzic has resigned both as Bosnian Serb president and SDS chairman. Frowick is driven not only by a desire for legitimate free elections but also by warnings from the central Sarajevo government that Muslims will not vote if the Serb-controlled half of Bosnia remains a fief of indicted war criminals.
"I don't want to leave any of your viewers with the expectation that we're going to come home with triumph, if you
define triumph as those two men going where they should go, which is the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague. "That is not going to happen tomorrow," he said. Holbrooke was referring to Karadzic and Serb army commander
General Ratko Mladic, both of whom have been indicted for alleged genocide and crimes against humanity in massacres of Muslim civilians during the 1992-95 war.
"We may only see 'rump' elections on Bosnian federation (Muslim-Croat) territory, which what we don't want. In the RS (Serb Republic), we might see a trumped-up referendum hailing Karadzic as the hero of all Serbs." The diplomat added, "I see a mess ahead, a dangerous freezing and hardening of positions all over the place. The Muslims feel that if Karadzic retains any influence, no way can they wage a dignified campaign."
Many analysts believe that, even if Karadzic resigned all public office, he would still manipulate events behind the scenes with underlings just as dedicated to cementing a mono- ethnic Serb state divorced from Bosnia. Only bundling him off to trial in The Hague, deprived of communication with his people, could make a real difference, seasoned observers of Bosnia's conflict say.
"Merely marginalising Karadzic is of no use whatsoever because he's be still around pulling strings and we can't deal with partition-oriented leaders," said John Fawcett, staff director of the Soros Foundation-funded International Crisis Group, which is monitoring implementation of the Dayton accord. Fawcett said an SDS boycott would not stop the OSCE from setting up balloting stations in northern Bosnia where several more moderate Serb parties, including the Bosnian offshoot of Milosevic's Socialists, rival the SDS in influence.
"If the SDS are barred, at least they won't win an (internationally recognised) election. But if only 15-20 percent of Serbs vote in the end, will it be legitimate?" he asked. |
SARAJEVO, July 17 (Reuters) - International organisers of Bosnia's first postwar elections may face a damaging boycott, regardless of whether they succeed in neutralising indicted Serb war criminals, experts fear.
But after a bruising session with Karadzic's old patron, President Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia on Wednesday, the normally positive Holbrooke conceded that his chances of meeting Frowick's timetable were dim. "I'd be misleading you if I told you, quote: 'A deal is in the works'," Holbrooke said in a Cable News Network (CNN) interview.
Ultra-nationalist deputies of Karadzic have shrugged off Frowick's threats of a ban, retorting that there will be no
OSCE-sponsored election on Serb territory in that case. "Frowick is in a tricky spot. The big danger is that if the SDS is banned, official elections aren't going to happen across Bosnia," said a Western diplomat close to the preparations.
Berserkistan, July 18 · Bosnian Serbs to Belgrade for Talks on Karadzic
Berserkistan, July 18 · Most Powerful Man in Balkans Faces Uncomfortable Choice
Berserkistan, July 17 · NATO Won’t Rule Out Military Action in Capturing Karadzic
Berserkistan, July 17 · Holbrooke Mission Fails to Remove Karadzic
Berserkistan, July 17 · Holbrooke Urges Milosevic to Surrender Radovan Karadic
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