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Bosnian Serb Federation Said Unlikely to Survive NEW YORK, May 17, (AP) — The chances that Bosnia will hold together as a multiethnic, unified state are poor, according to a draft intelligence report circulating in the American government, The New York Times reports Friday. The National Intelligence Estimate report, a classified attempt to put together a consensus view of American intelligence agencies, questions the position of the Clinton administration that the civilian effort in Bosnia is working on schedule, the Times said. The report comes amid concern on the part of American allies that the United States, with 20,000 troops as a peacekeeping force in Bosnia, is being overly optimistic in assessing the chances for a fair election under the current Serb leader, Radovan Karadzic. Karadzic has been indicted by the international war crimes tribunal in The Hague. The peace agreement reached in Dayton, Ohio, last November called for Karadzic and the Bosnian Serb military leader, Gen. Ratko Mladic, to give up their positions and be handed over to the tribunal in The Hague for trial. According to the Times, senior American officials say that the Intelligence Estimate was not yet complete, but that the current draft is sharply pessimistic about the efforts to build a unified, multiethnic Bosnia. The report predicts that the elections, if held, would be along ethnic lines in the country divided among Serbs, Croats and Muslims, the Times said. Leaders of all three groups want to preserve their power bases, fearing that a multiethnic state would dilute their control, the Times said.

Berserkistan, May 16 · Bosnian Federation Agrees to Joint Military Command
May 15 · Clinton, Christopher Open Talks on Saving Bosnian Federation

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