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Karadzic Gambles, Playing for Time, as Pressure Mounts By Jovan Kovacic SARAJEVO, May 30 (Reuters) - Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, defying the international community and Serbia's President Slobodan Milosevic, is taking a huge gamble in assuming his foes will not unite to remove him, diplomats say. "Karadzic is playing for the ultimate stakes -- his own life -- so no wonder the game is so tough," a Western diplomat told Reuterss on condition of anonymity. "Never mind how much luck he has had so far, it will run out," he said. Karadzic has been indicted by the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague and under Dayton should have stepped down months ago and faced international justice. But he has steadfastly refused to budge, pitting himself and his core of hardline supporters against both the international community and Milosevic in the belief that time is his best ally. Karadzic infuriated both when he dismissed his moderate prime minister, Rajko Kasagic, early this month and marginalised moderates in the northwest town of Banja Luka. The international mediator Carl Bildt and Milosevic had been grooming the Banja Luka moderates as an alternative leadership to the hardliners in Karadzic's powerbase at Pale near Sarajevo. "He has now apparently consolidated power and is biding his time until the Dayton process falls apart," a Western analyst said. Karadzic is mainly counting on a breakdown in the tense relations between the Muslims and Croats who the United States forced into a federation in 1994 after a bitter 10-month war. Deep mistrust still prevails between the two ethnic groups, and Bosnian Croat nationalists have not given up their dream of a "Greater Croatia" that includes a chunk of western Bosnia. "Again Karadzic is facing a disunited block lacking the resolve to go and do its thing," the analyst said. "He is counting on Milosevic doing nothing and the West dissipating its energy. The Serbs have always played their game that way -- waiting for a new day tomorrow and one more day further away from Dayton's goal of a reintegrated society." But some NATO officers have privately said things could easily turn very wrong for Karadzic. Milosevic is under pressure at home from a powerful leftists bloc and from moderates to get rid of the hardline Serbian nationalists for whom Karadzic is an idol. For Serbia's president, the Bosnian Serb leader is moreover a serious political foe who has snubbed him and questioned his authority since 1993. The United States is also using the prospect of sanctions to pressure Milosevic to deliver Karadzic to The Hague, something Serbia's strongman has the power to achieve, but is unwilling to do. The big question is which way will Milosevic swing -- back to isolationism... or to the West which can reward him,'' the diplomat said. For the moment, the 60,000-strong peace Implementation Force (IFOR) is loath to move against Karadzic, fearing a backlash from Serb nationalists, and media criticism at home if it suffers casualties. "Karadzic simply does not listen to kind advice. He understands only force, but we have got it and not him," the diplomat said. "He did not believe that we would bomb him sky high in 1995 but we did. It is the same line of thinking all over again and at some point he will overstep the line of no return."

Berserkistan, May 29 · Bosnian Serbs Split on Karadzic, Mladic Fate
Berserkistan, May 28 · Serbs Said Deciding Fate of Karadzic, Mladic
Berserkistan, May 20 · The Karadzic Proxy: Biljana Plavsic
Berserkistan, May 20 · Bildt: Karadzic Poisoning Political Atmosphere
Berserkistan, May 20 · Kradzic Shifts Some Duties, but Won't Step Down
The Indictment Against Radovan Karadzic and Gen. Ratko Mladic

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