---

For Now, Says US, Cost of Capturing Karadzic, Mladic is Too Great The United States and its allies are signalling that the cost of bringing Bosnian Serb leaders to justice for war crimes is -- for the time being -- simply too great. Washington and others are making diplomatic efforts to have Bosnian Serb "President" Radovan Karadzic removed from power. Karadzic and military commander Ratko Mladic are both wanted on war crimes charges by the U.N. tribunal in The Hague. But diplomats say that while Karadzic must be removed from power, there is a growing realisation that neither he nor Mladic will be delivered for trial anytime soon. "The cost of getting them is just potentially too great," said one Western diplomat who asked not to be identified. But putting the issue of justice to one side is also a risk, since Karadzic is seen as a major obstacle to the peace process, particularly ahead of the September elections in Bosnia. Impunity is also potentially embarrassing for Western countries which set up the U.N. war crimes tribunal and called it a key element of reconciliation after the conflict. Nevertheless, diplomats say it has become clear that there may be no other option. The West realises that Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic has no intention of delivering either of the two men for trial. It would harm him domestically, since Karadzic and Mladic enjoy popular support -- especially Mladic. The alternative is that NATO troops in Bosnia could seize them. The peace force has a mandate to detain alleged war criminals if they come across them, but not to hunt them down. Diplomats say the 16-nation alliance is unlikely to make that mandate tougher because of the risks involved. A firefight with those who guard the two Bosnian Serb leaders would risk casualties to the NATO peace-keeping force, with potentially disastrous consequences just a few months before the U.S. presidential elections in November. "It's all gone very well up to now with minimal casualties. A change in that could provoke a change in U.S. policy as it did in Somalia," said another diplomat. A NATO arrest might provoke resentment among Bosnian Serbs, turning the two men into martyrs and sparking unrest. That, in turn, could make it much more difficult to carry through elections and rebuild Bosnia. On the diplomatic front, Russia has made clear that it opposes attempts to bring Karadzic to trial. "I consider such a line counterproductive insofar as it can only arouse further difficulties and even wreck the peace process," Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov said on Thursday after a visit to Belgrade. Mladic has kept a much lower profile than Karadzic and some Western officials say privately that he is still needed for the implementation of the military aspects of the peace process. "Nothing gets done on the military side unless Mladic orders it. There would be a vacuum without him and so far, he has made sure there is compliance with Dayton (the peace agreement), however unpalatable that is," said one official. U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher, who meets Serbian, Croatian and Bosnian leaders in Geneva on Sunday, made clear on Thursday that arresting the two men was not the priority it once was. "I think that the elections can go forward as long as (Karadzic and Mladic) are not candidates," he said. "It is not our preferred outcome to have them still on the scene, but at the same time, I would not rule out the holding of elections even though they are on the scene." U.S. envoy John Kornblum is currently trying to persuade Milosevic to keep his promise to remove Karadzic from power. But diplomats say that even if Karadzic is officially ousted, he could still wield power behind the scenes in the Bosnian Serb stronghold of Pale. He has already successfully beaten off a challenge from more moderate political leaders.

Berserkistan, May 30 · Karadzic Gambles Heavily, Defying Serbia and West
Berserkistan, May 29 · Bosnian Serbs Split on Karadzic, Mladic Fate
Berserkistan, May 28 · Serbs Said Deciding Fate of Karadzic, Mladic
Berserkistan, May 20 · The Karadzic Proxy: Biljana Plavsic
Berserkistan, May 20 · Bildt: Karadzic Poisoning Political Atmosphere
Berserkistan, May 20 · Kradzic Shifts Some Duties, but Won't Step Down
The Indictment Against Radovan Karadzic and Gen. Ratko Mladic

Berserkistan is a world news service of Michael Linder Productions, Inc.
©1995-1996, All Rights Reserved