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West Eyes Karadzic’s Moves While Weighing Sanctions
By Nicholas Doughty
Under intense pressure from the international community, Karadzic surrendered some powers as Bosnian Serb leader to a deputy on Sunday but retained his key position as chairman of the ruling SDS party, which controls the media and police. The United States, Britain and others say the moves do not go far enough and that Karadzic, indicted by the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague, must be removed from effective power well before Bosnia's first post-war elections in September.
Diplomats said media criticism that the West had been fooled again by a man who bluffed and tricked his way past the United Nations and NATO for much of the Bosnian war was not justified. "It is quite clear that he has handed over power to a deputy, Biljana Plavsic," said one Western diplomat.
"What is not clear is how far he will be manipulating things from behind the scenes. That will become clear in the next few days and we are considering a phased sanctions package that will be used within days if it turns out he is trying to play games." Failure to deliver this time will bring back charges that the international community lacks backbone over Bosnia and perhaps stir more disputes between Washington, European allies and Moscow over what should be done.
Such arguments fatally undermined the U.N. mission in Bosnia and caused major strains in the transatlantic alliance, until NATO air strikes and a U.S.-brokered peace deal last year finally brought an end to more than three years of war. "There is no way we can go back on this. No one wants to bring back sanctions but we will have to if Karadzic is up to his old tricks," said another diplomat. "We have no choice. There will be action, within a few days if needed."
Carl Bildt, the chief international representative in Bosnia, pushed hard for a threat of sanctions from a summit of the world's rich industrialised nations in France last week. The threat was issued and it was followed by Karadzic's announcement on Sunday that he was handing over to Plavsic.
Bildt and the commander of the NATO-led peace force in Bosnia can simply reimpose all sanctions, lifted after last year's Dayton agreement, on the Bosnian Serbs and on the rump Yugoslav state -- Serbia and Montenegro. Bildt, the United States and others are not keen to use blanket sanctions, since they hurt people rather than political leaders. In addition, diplomats say there is a risk that economic and political isolation of the Bosnian Serbs would wreck any chance of holding elections.
But the United States, France, Russia, Germany and Britain -- the five powers that have coordinated Bosnia policy -- are now discussing a more selective, phased sanctions plan. This approach, which diplomats say would not necessarily need U.N. Security Council approval, would involve three stages.
The first is that all bilateral reconstruction aid to the Bosnian Serbs would be stopped and Serbia would be urged to freeze all financial links with the Bosnian Serbs. The second stage, if needed, would involve financial and economic sanctions against both the Bosnian Serbs and Serbia. The third stage would be the reimposition of all sanctions.
"This has the advantage of turning up the pressure and showing we are serious without pressing the 'nuclear button' and slapping all the sanctions on at once," said one diplomat. Diplomats said discussions were continuing on the plan. Russia, which has been traditionally more supportive of the Serbs, was so far unenthusiastic but could be persuaded if President Boris Yeltsin wins re-election after Wednesday's vote.
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LONDON, July 3 (Reuters) - Western powers, stung by charges that they have been duped again in the Balkans, are considering sanctions on the Bosnian Serbs within days if Radovan Karadzic maintains a grip on power, diplomats said on Wednesday.
Berserkistan, July 2 · Acting President Plavsic Strikes A Hard Line
Berserkistan, July 2 · Karadzic Practices Psychiatry in Politics
Berserkistan, July 1 · Bildt: Bosnian Serb Leadership in Turmoil
Berserkistan, July 1 · In Televised Address, Karadzic Assails Opponents
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