SARAJEVO, April 12 (Reuters) — The resurgence of Bosnian Serb hardliners shows the urgent need to oust their political chief Radovan Karadzic, Western diplomats said on Friday. But the envoys are not sure he will go. They are expected to increase pressure on Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic to make good his promise to remove his former protege in Bosnia.
Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb "president," and his army commander, General Ratko Mladic, should already have left power under the Bosnian peace agreement. But they are still in the saddle and trying hard to wreck the peace process. The conundrum for diplomats is whether Milosevic exaggerated his ability to topple them — or whether he is not really trying.
Pressure Begins with Milosevic
"Western powers will start to bludgeon Milosevic to remove Karadzic. It's something he has promised to do," one diplomat said. "But whether Milosevic can deliver, we don't know." The Serbian leader has no interest in Karadzic's long-term survival. Milosevic signed the peace deal, creating linked Serb and Muslim-Croat entities in Bosnia, to escape U.N. sanctions and diplomatic quarantine which were likely to bring Serbia to its knees.But the Muslim-Croat federation is tottering. If it fails, the peace process could fall apart without any help from the Serbs, bringing about an entirely new situation. This prospect may be encouraging Milosevic to leave Karadzic alone for now, some diplomats say.
Milosevic showed twice in 1995 that, when necessary, he can bring the Bosnian Serbs brutally to heel. He sent his police to free 400 U.N. hostages the Bosnian Serbs seized last summer. He made them surrender their negotiating rights to him at the peace talks, then forced Karadzic to sign terms which the hardliners hated. Until recently, U.S.-led mediators tolerated Karadzic remaining in office while he lay low and Milosevic swung the political balance in favour of moderates based in north Bosnia. But the hardliners have made a comeback as the Muslim-Croat federation's flimsy foundations become increasingly apparent.
Despite Dayton, Karadzic Still in Power
Diplomats admit things are moving in the wrong direction. Karadzic, indicted by the U.N. war crimes tribunal, retains control over Bosnian Serb television and the police. The hardliners were strong enough to prevent the Bosnian Serb government taking part in an international aid conference for Bosnia which opened in Brussels today.Diplomats would prefer Milosevic to take care of Karadzic's removal to avoid a nationalist backlash against Western intervention. NATO peacekeepers say arresting him and other indicted war criminals is not their job. NATO troops will detain Karadzic if they happen to encounter him, which they have avoided. Milosevic promised to deal with Karadzic and his ruling nationalists before elections due this autumn, a timetable the West regards as too slow.
A Serb exodus enforced by the hardliners from Sarajevo suburbs handed over to the federation appears not to have damaged Karadzic's position as his opponents had hoped. It may have even benefited him as ordinary Serbs rallied around their leaders in a time of crisis.
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