Promise of Ethnic Peace in Bosnia Vanishes
As Muslims, Serbs, Croats Deepen Divisions
(SARAJEVO, March 17—Reuters) The guns are silent but Bosnia is lurching towards partition rather than the multi-ethnic society envisioned by the Dayton peace accords—with unsettling implications for NATO and the international community. "Dayton gave Bosnia the opportunity to reconstitute on a multi-ethnic basis. It did not guarantee the result," a western diplomat who asked not to be named said on Sunday. "What's happening now is de facto partition along ethnic lines, which is unlikely to produce stability. That suggests more conflict or an extended role for NATO and the international community, with Bosnia a sort of protectorate."The 43-month Bosnian war pitted mostly Muslim government forces against separatist Serbs and, during 1993 and early 1994, against separatist Croats as well. The Dayton peace deal outlined the way back from war to a multi-ethnic society, predicated on financial incentives, NATO peace forces wielding a big stick to enforce military compliance and a measure of goodwill among the parties. Three months into the process, the threat of overwhelming NATO force has led the armies to disengage on schedule.
Billions in Aid are Elusive
But where billions of dollars in aid were promised, only a few tens of millions have yet materialized, making the needed surge in post-war jobs and reconstruction a distant hope. Of goodwill among the parties there has been virtually none. Serb republic President Radovan Karadzic and Serb army commander General Ratko Mladic remain in power despite being indicted for war crimes. Both continue to preach the uncompromising Serb nationalist line which brought war to Bosnia in 1992.As those Serb leaders stir the pot of Bosnian discontent, Muslim and Croats pay lip service to their Dayton-mandated federation while manoeuvring for ethnic advantage in disputes over checkpoints, customs, police and the return of refugees.
Moslims, Croats and Serbs Refusing to Integrate
The practical consequence of this climate has been that Bosnia's Muslim, Croat and Serb populations, initially segregated by war, are now solidifying into ethnically homogenous groups under the pressures of peace. The last of the five Sarajevo suburbs being handed over from Bosnia's Serb republic to its Muslim-Croat federation will be transferred on Tuesday, bringing to an end a process which has seen more than 60,000 Serbs flee those areas. Looting, arson and intimidation have been widespread, with authorities on both sides of the line contributing to conditions of lawlessness.
"We still have a situation where the forces of ethnic separation are stronger than the forces of ethnic reintegration," Carl Bildt, the international community's High representative to Bosnia, said on Saturday. He was referring to Sarajevo and other areas where territories were being transferred, but might as well have been speaking of the entire country. There is no immediate prospect of the more than two million Bosnian refugees and displaced persons returning to their homes across ethnic lines in significant numbers.
- Sarajevo, which by U.N. account retained a Serb population of between 20,000 and 25,000 throughout 43 months of war, remains Bosnia's only functioning, multi-ethnic city.
- Mostar, the pivot point of the federation, limps along as a city bitterly divided between Muslims and Croats.
- Banja Luka remains a Serb stronghold, the centre of an ethnically cleansed region from which more than 500,000 Muslims and Croats were driven from their homes during the war.
- Areas of western Bosnia being transferred from the federation to the republic were burned and looted before they were handed over.
Threat of Renewed Warfare Looms
What Dayton intended as internal divisions between cooperating entities now look likely to solidify into borders among competing ethnic states. "The result of de facto partition will be a Bosnia sovereign in name only, landlocked and surrounded by hostile Serb and Croat forces," said a western diplomat. "If NATO leaves at the end of the year as planned some residual force must remain or war will surely break out again."
Berserkistan is a world news service of Michael Linder Productions, Inc.
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