Huge Political and Technical Problems Loom
LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) — With a total pledge of almost $2 billion for this year alone, the international community is claiming success in its efforts to rebuild Bosnia. But diplomats say there are huge political and technical problems to be overcome if the cash is really to achieve its aim — convincing ordinary people that peace is a better and more profitable alternative to war.
A conference last Friday and Saturday in Brussels brought promises of more than $1.2 billion for Bosnia from over 50 nations. The money, in addition to $600 million raised at an earlier meeting, is for this year's reconstruction plans. "Today's job is done and we feel it was done successfully," said European External Affairs Commissioner Hans van den Broek. World Bank President James Wolfensohn said everyone at the conference knew there was a tough job ahead. Just how tough is only now becoming apparent.
Debate over Aid to Bosnian Serbs
- First of all, donor nations and international institutions are working against the clock. A NATO-led peace force which has succeeded in keeping the lid on tensions in Bosnia is due to leave by the end of the year, although real reconciliation between the Croats, Muslims and Serbs is still a long way off.
- Under the peace plan which ended more than three years of war in Bosnia, there are supposed to be elections by September. "People will need to feel the benefits by the elections," said one European diplomat. "It's going to be a real race to achieve that. The risk is that, once the troops go, we could be on the downhill slope to conflict again."
- The projects — designed to rebuild everything from power supplies to telecommunications and provide jobs for tens of thousands leaving the armed forces — will be difficult to implement quickly, diplomats say. In many parts of Bosnia, the war damaged the country's infrastructure so badly that rebuilding it will take time.
- Donor nations will also have to be careful about how aid is allocated, since those who worked the black market on all sides during the war will be on the lookout for fresh opportunities. "It's not simply about turning up and handing out wads of cash," said another diplomat.
- But the toughest issue is how to deal with the Bosnian Serbs, an issue that shows signs of dividing the United States from some of its European allies. The hard—line Bosnian Serb leadership refused to send representatives to the Brussels conference. Bosnian Serb President Radovan Karadzic and his army commander Ratko Mladic have been indicted for war crimes by the U.N. tribunal in The Hague. Under the Bosnian peace deal, they will not be able to stand for office in the September elections. But diplomats said they could continue to cause plenty of trouble until then. Robert Frowick, the chief international envoy charged with organizing elections, has accused the two men of undermining election plans.
High Representative for Bosnia Carl Bildt and the United States made clear in Brussels that there would be no major aid effort for the Bosnian Serbs until their leaders faced justice. But some European countries are taking a softer line than the United States and Bildt, arguing that they must try to get some of the aid to the Bosnian Serbs despite the problems. They say cutting off the Bosnian Serbs from all aid will simply increase popular resentment and feelings of isolation, helping Karadzic and Mladic and stoking the embers of conflict."There is already deep bitterness and suspicion and we could just make it all worse," said one European diplomat. However, the United States argues that justice must be done and that Mladic and Karadzic should already have stepped down under the Bosnian peace deal. "It's not too serious a difference at the moment, since each country can choose how it channels the aid for the most part," said another diplomat. "But it's amazing that Mladic and Karadzic still have this power to drive a wedge into the international community, as they did so often during the war."
If Bosnia descends into chaos and fighting again after the NATO withdrawal, diplomats say it will be very hard to get the weary international community to give billions more dollars needed for reconstruction in coming years.
Berserkistan is a world news service of Michael Linder Productions, Inc.
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