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U.S. Pushes for Limited Sanctions if Serbia Won’t Surrender Karadzic
By Nicholas Doughty
Bosnia's Muslim-led government, worried that Karadzic's continued presence will wreck the first postwar elections, wants all sanctions on the rump Yugoslav state and on the Bosnian Serbs to return from July 1 if Karadzic is still in power.
The international community rejected that option at a meeting in the Italian city of Florence last week, even though all sanctions would be reimposed automatically if peace coordinator Carl Bildt reports to the United Nations that the parties are violating the terms of last year's peace deal.
Instead, Western diplomats said there was a growing willingness to push for a new U.N. Security Council resolution that would reimpose sanctions gradually -- starting perhaps with transport, cultural and sporting links. "This would show Milosevic that we are serious and that he has to deliver on the promise he made to get rid of Karadzic," said one Western diplomat.
The crippling sanctions imposed on the rump Yugoslav state -- Serbia and Montenegro -- for its part in the war were
suspended following the Dayton peace agreement last year which ended more than three years of war in Bosnia. Despite intense diplomatic pressure from Washington and others, Milosevic has been either unable or unwilling to deliver on his promise to oust Karadzic, who is wanted by the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague.
Diplomats say the removal of Karadzic would cause Milosevic serious political trouble in Belgrade. In any case, Milosevic appears unimpressed by threats that sanctions could be renewed.
The Bosnian Serb leader's continued presence is widely seen as the biggest threat to elections in Bosnia, due in September. There are already major problems with freedom of movement and the media, as well as the return of refugees. Diplomats said that reimposing all sanctions on Serbia and on the Bosnian Serbs would simply sour the atmosphere even more before the elections, making it tougher for the NATO-led peace force and for international civilian efforts to rebuild Bosnia.
Despite talking tough, Washington and others have made clear privately that they see this option as the "last resort." "In some ways, it would be easiest to use the blunt instrument at our disposal," said another diplomat. "But reimposing the lot would cause real trouble."
However, choosing to fire a warning shot by reimposing sanctions more gradually could also prove to be a problem. Firstly, it might backfire by simply convincing Milosevic that the international community is not serious about tackling him on the issue of Karadzic.
Secondly, it would require a new U.N. Security Council resolution -- which would need the approval of Russia. Moscow, still suspicious of NATO's role in Bosnia, has traditionally defended Serb interests. Diplomats say it is far from clear that Russia, now in the middle of a presidential election campaign, would accept a new U.N. resolution, even for limited reimposition of sanctions.
"It could be difficult," said another Western diplomat. "The Russians may want to show that they cannot be pushed
around, since this is election time."
The head of the U.N. war crimes tribunal in The Hague, Antonio Cassese, called last week for limited economic and sporting sanctions to be reimposed on Serbia if Karadzic and Bosnian Serb military commander Ratko Mladic remained at large. Despite the difficulties involved, that option may be the only one left for the United States and its allies, who are desperate for the elections to go ahead on time.
At last week's conference in Florence, they said the vote should take place on September 14, although the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has yet to ratify that they it can proceed under reasonably free and fair conditions. Any delay would undermine the peace agreement and perhaps hold up the withdrawal of the NATO-led peace force in Bosnia.
The United States, which brokered the peace deal, is particularly keen to avoid this as President Clinton faces elections himself in November. Ending the war in Bosnia has been the jewel in his crown of foreign policy successes -- so far. |
LONDON, June 19 (Reuters) - The United States and its allies could push for a limited reimposition of sanctions on Serbia if President Slobodan Milosevic fails to oust Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic in the next two weeks, Western diplomats say.
Berserkistan, June 11 · Refugees Can’t Return Home, Frustrated West Waves Sanctions
Berserkistan, June 6 · Tribunal Chief Caseese talks of Sanctions Against Serbs
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